Two more supreme marathon performances in New York this weekend has made the Kenyan Olympic selection ever more competitive and uncertain.
Newspaper columns over the upcoming months will be full of heroic success stories of athletes beating all the odds to qualify for London. Spare a thought however for those who are among the best in the world, but could still miss out due to their country’s great depth in a particular sport.
Table Tennis is one such example as five Chinese men and women, all ranked in the world’s top six, will battle for just two individual slots.
Jamaican sprinting and British track cycling will be similarly competitive, while in Sailing Britain boast the world’s top two in the Finn Class (Ed Wright and Giles Scott), but both are poised to miss out in favour of the seemingly invincible Ben Ainslie.
No where however is competition more fierce than over 26 miles.
The Olympics remains the sports greatest test but to Kenyan’s London also offers a chance to pay tribute to the late Sammy Wanjiru, who obliterated the course record in victory in Beijing before his tragic death earlier this year.
Two of the three spots have theoretically already been taken as world champion Abel Kirui, who repeated his 2009 triumph in Daegu, and Patrick Makau, who shaved 21 seconds off the world record in September, have each been pre-selected.
Yet no final decision will be made until April, and with many rivals chasing Makau’s record as well as times minutes quicker than Kirui’s best neither can feel completely confident that their selection will be confirmed.
But for wet conditions Geoffrey Kipsang could have bettered that world record in Frankfurt last week. As it was he finished four seconds outside, and it is these fine margins upon which selection depends.
Emmanuel Mutai and Moses Mosop won in London and Chicago respectably, each in course record times. Mutai also won the World Marathon Majors competition after coming second in New York, while Mosop ran the second fastest time ever as runner up in Boston.
The winner on each of those occasions, Geoffrey Mutai, is probably the best of the lot. Although deemed illegal due to the downhill nature of the course, his time in Boston was the quickest ever, while his performance in New York, a notoriously slow course, was surely worth a world record.
There are other contenders including the three times London winner Martin Lel and the fourth fastest man in history Duncan Kibet .
The fact that one of these men will win in London seems a formality, and while politics will ensure that they will never all line up together, the spring marathon season will offer more great challenges ahead of the day of reckoning next August.
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