From Sir Fergie to Sir Wiggo: What role does luck play in sport?

In a world utterly transformed by the ethos of professionalism, it has become deeply unfashionable to talk about sport in terms other than that of training and dedication.

Gym walls are plastered with motivational messages of the "Shallow men believe in luck, strong men believe in cause and effect” variety, while in Matthew Syed’s Bounce we read of “the myth of talent and the power of practice.”

Despite his perceived misfortune at the hands of referees Sir Alex Ferguson had no time for luck. His career was defined by formidable work ethic and attention to detail, a refusal to rest on his laurels, and a 26-year insistence on accepting only the best. David Moyes is cut from the same cloth, and by succeeding at Everton without a billion pound budget, he is testimony to the benefits of effort and endeavour.

To look elsewhere, take Frank Lampard: a self-confessed former ‘chubby teen’, Ricky Burns: an unassuming shoe-shop worker and world champion boxer, Jonny Brownlee and Joe Root: two of Yorkshire’s latest protégé’s. Four figures who have risen up the ladder to stardom this week through graft and toil – their talent complemented by drive, dedication and sheer hard work. Despite their greater glamour the same can be said of international stars from Serena to Tiger, Nadal to Alonso.

Yet despite all of this sport remains littered with references to ‘fate’ and ‘destiny’, to unpredictability and to moments which do not quite comprehend reality. 

The FA Cup final was a perfect example. Wigan’s whole side was assembled for less than that paid for Sergio Aguero, and while their victory was completely deserved, it was down less to talent and training than that it was their day and their moment. Like Chelsea in last year’s Champions League they just seemed destined to triumph.

Luck can be found in other places in sport. Some are more susceptible to injuries than others, some are in the right place at the right time, and some have a freak break into their sport, the aforementioned Matthew Syed for example, who as a child happened to have an international table-tennis coach as a school PE teacher.

Whole careers can be affected by good fortune. Bradley Wiggins’s emergence in the late ‘90s coincided with the Lottery Funding revolution in British sport, his transferral to road racing coincided with the formation of Team Sky, and his zenith in 2012 coincided with an unusually favourable Tour de France course. His success has not been due to luck but chance has played its part, and in key ways.

Wiggins’s Giro d’Italia campaign so far however has been a cycle of mechanical's, mishaps and meteorologically induced mayhem. He has suffered more crashes than a Windows 95 computer and while this could be blamed on poor technique and race nous, it is tempting to put it down more to simple bad luck.

Sir Alex himself was not immune to luck on occasions, of both varieties. Penalty misses by Bergkamp and Terry and City’s injury time heroics in 2012 spring to mind.

To attribute all of this to chance is to miss the point. Great men do win due to “cause and effect,” and there is no greater power than hours and hours of practice. Yet in sport as in life, fate and luck continues to play some role and it is one which makes sport today as exciting and unpredictable as ever.